100% Free in 2026 · Quantitative MLB Model
Bet the number, not the noise.
A fair win probability for every MLB game — we post only the bets where our number beats the book, each logged before first pitch and tracked in full. How it works →
- Logged before first pitch
- Never deleted after a loss
- Closing-line value tracked
Today's Value Bets
How to use these picks▾
1 · Shop the best price
We benchmark against Pinnacle's no-vig line, but you don't need Pinnacle — bet at whichever book gives you the best number. A better price is a bigger edge.
2 · Respect the "Playable to" price
Each pick lists the worst odds still worth betting. Lines move fast after we post — if the price has dropped past that number, the edge is gone. Pass rather than chase.
3 · Size with discipline
Stake flat units or fractional Kelly — never more than you can afford to lose. Consistent sizing is what turns a real edge into long-run profit and survives the variance.
ℹ️ About this model ▾
Pitcher quality, lineup status, park factors, weather, bullpen quality, BvP career matchup, arsenal fit, market audit, and more — applied as model adjustments before the market edge comparison. The final Independent Baseball Projections probability is compared against the no-vig Pinnacle probability to identify pricing gaps. Only picks with ≥4pp edge vs. Pinnacle are posted.
Model
Dual-Poisson + log-odds
Benchmark
No-vig Pinnacle
Signals
30+ signals
Calibration
Platt-scaled monthly
- Every pick is logged before first pitch — timestamps are immutable
- Results are never deleted after losses
- Closing-line value is tracked to verify edge holds to close
- Live results are reported separately from historical backtests
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
How does the model price each game?
It converts the model's win probability into American odds with no margin — the theoretical price at which neither side has an edge. Edge is the gap between that model price and the market.
How is edge calculated?
Edge is the difference between the model's win probability and the market's implied probability (after removing the vig). Independent Baseball Projections only posts picks with at least a 4pp edge vs. Pinnacle's no-vig line.
Does past performance guarantee future results?
No. Sports betting involves risk and variance. The model identifies positive expected value — not certainty. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Who's behind this
Independent Baseball Projections is a one-person project, built and run by BB. I built an independent win-probability model from scratch and post every pick publicly — timestamped before first pitch, never deleted after a loss — to prove the edge is real instead of asking you to take it on faith.
⚠️ For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Must be of legal gambling age and located in a legal betting jurisdiction. Bet responsibly.